Effect of Export, Import, Investment &Exchange Rate Trends to Indonesian Economic Growth: Approach with Cointegration and Error Correction Method (ECM)

R. Roosaleh Laksono and Mohd Haizam Mohd Saudi

This research is intended to find out whether there are any effect of export (oil & gas), import (oil & gas), investment, real short-run relationship or long-term relationship ) affect the economic growth of Indonesia. To test and analyze in the short term that is by using cointegrasi method, while to test and analyze long term used method of error correction method (ECM). From cointegration result that has been done that, trace statistic value (198.6537757)> critical value 5 percent, besides value Prob. Sebsar 0,000000111 is smaller than α = 5%, so also with max eige stat (74.68590152)> critical value (74.68590152) besides Prob value. Sebsar 0,0000577 smaller than α = 5%, it can be concluded that in long term there is cointegration in equation model used in this research and equilibrium relationship between two variables (free and not free) in long term . Output result on ECM where all prob. free variable data below 5 percent alpha, this shows that there has been a balance in the short term unless the variable data of oil and gas exports does not occur in the short term balance of economic growth.

Volume 11 | 03-Special Issue

Pages: 123-137