Demand Modelling, Forecast and Analysis for Petrol, Diesel and Crude Oil in India

Tarun Madaan and Kalpana Singh

Indian economy has moved into a dynamic phase. It is necessary to see how energy demand would grow in this phase. In this paper, econometric models are developed for the demand for various petroleum products separately with the aim of capturing variables that are specific to the individual fuel. This study projects the demand for fuels up to 2019–2020, after the period of the 12th Five Year Plan using the secondary yearly data from the period 1998-2018. The present study has estimated the demand for oils by using the VAR model with different combinations by changing the methods, lag and p value options and selected the best two models to forecast the demand based on the accuracy by comparing the forecast values with the actuals of 2016 to 2018. The demand for petrol and diesel for the year 2019–2020 is estimated to be 32210 bbl/day and 73912 bbl/day respectively using trend model of VAR estimation under 98% and 90% of accuracy. Similarly the demand forecast for crude oil for the year 2019–2020 has been estimated 4456 tmt/day under 91% accuracy.

Volume 12 | Issue 5

Pages: 286-292

DOI: 10.5373/JARDCS/V12I5/20201716