An Analysis of Sea Temperature of Climate Models

Nur Farhanah Kahal Musakkal, Noor Arinie binti Abdul Muhaimi , Darmesah Gabda

Estimating extremes sea temperature for non-stationary framework is a key research question in several area such as coastal, ecological and biogeochemical processes. The extreme value theory is widely applied in climate change to evaluate the risks potential of extreme event will occur in the future. The objective of this research is to use the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to assess non-stationarity in maximum sea temperature from selected Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) under representative concentration pathways RCP8.5 radiative forcing. Five CMIP models used in this study are CSRIO, GISS, MIROC, MPI and MRI. To accurately estimate sea temperature, the affecting parameter such as wind speed is included as covariates in the location parameter (𝜇) of GEV distribution. Before conducted further analysis, the goodness of fit to the climatological model data is examine using QQ-Plot. The QQ-Plot indicated that the GEV distribution is appropriate fit for all these data. The best model for each climate model is chosen based on the Likelihood Ratio (LR) test at 95% level of confidence. Overall, no strong evidence found to reject the null hypothesis. Therefore, no wind speed trend detected in annual maximum sea temperature.

Volume 11 | 12-Special Issue

Pages: 275-279