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Estimating Volatility of Market Risk of Viet Nam Consumer Good Industry after the Low Inflation Period 2015-2017


Dr. Pham Tuan Anh, Dr. Pham Minh Dat, Vo Kim Nhan and Dinh Tran Ngoc Huy
Abstract

Consumer industry is one of the most rapidly growing sectors, with many achievements both in Vietnam and in Asia. In recent years, its rapid growth has produced revenues from business activities. One of the key objectives of this paper is to assess market risk volatility in consumer good businesses in the 2015-2017 postlow inflation period. Our first findings are to be found that beta values in general (< 1) for most of our good consumer companies are appropriate when we apply quantitative, statistical and analytical methods to evaluate the asset beta and beta CAPM of 20 listed Viet Nam consumer good companies. However, we analyze the market risk volatility, determined by asset and equity beta var, during the post-low inflation period in this sector in two circumstances: crisis 2007/2009 and post-low inflation period 2015-2011. Finally, if we observe 3 different scenarios of taxation (25%, 20% and 28%), Beta CAPM or equity beta mean fall if the tax rate is up from 20% to 25%, and when hit a peak of 28%, it turns to increase while asset beta mean shows an opposite direction when rising first and then it goes down. At last, policies in risk management and governance are suggested in the conclusion based on the research results and findings. In the post-low inflation environment, we alert that Beta fluctuations could be little higher. JEL classification numbers: G00, G390, C83

Volume 12 | 03-Special Issue

Pages: 818-826

DOI: 10.5373/JARDCS/V12SP3/20201323