Weekly Price Forecasting of Cotton Using Time Series Model

Rojalin Pani and Saroj Kanta Biswal

The present study is undertaken with an objective to forecast cotton price for Odisha (India). The seasonal ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1) model is best fitted for forecasting of cotton price as study reveals. The weekly price forecasting is done for Pre-sowing and Pre-harvesting seasons. The sowing and harvesting months for cotton in Odisha is June and December respectively. Hence pre-sowing forecasting is done for the months of April to June and pre-harvesting forecasting is done for the moths October to December. The pre-sowing forecasted prices range from Rs. 4580-4623 per qtl, and the Pre-harvesting forecasted prices range from Rs. 4641-4683 per qtl. This forecasting will help farmers to reap maximum benefits by taking on time marketing decisions. Farmers are advised to reschedule their crop plan according to the price forecast.

Volume 11 | 10-Special Issue

Pages: 236-240

DOI: 10.5373/JARDCS/V11SP10/20192796