Testing the Volatility and Model Designing for International Tourist Footfalls in India: Applying GARCH Family Models

Arya Kumar and Uma Sankar Mishra

Any growth of the nation and maintaining the sustainability of foreign currency flow can be achieved through arrivals of international tourists. The rise or fall of tourist in India is affected by several factors like climate, political rules, economic factors and etc. this factors will definitely affect the tourism industry. To safeguard various dependants on tourism industry directly or indirectly should forecast the footfalls of foreigners. In this paper, GARCH model is developed to best fit for the tourism industry and forecast the volatility of international tourist in India. The analysis considers 10 years (2008-2017) of monthly international footfalls of tourist in India. This type of analysis will support several government officials, hospitality sectors, tourism officials, the planners, the stakeholders and many future marketing planners for deciding the best strategies for marketing. These strategies will help to design new plans and furnish the destination so as to grow the tourism industry.

Volume 11 | 10-Special Issue

Pages: 212-220

DOI: 10.5373/JARDCS/V11SP10/20192793