Archives

Methodological Basis for Selection of the Forecasting Methods


Albert Bikmullin,Boris Pavlov, Zufar Khusainov, Gaziz Mingaleev
Abstract

Topicality of the problems, which are considered in this article, stems from the need to utilise such model of forecasting (in the course of development and implementation of the forecasting method), which would adequately describe the process under investigation and which would be the basis for obtaining future values of this method. The purpose of this article is to investigate objective laws of real phenomena and to develop the method for analysing these phenomena, provided that this method would be practically applicable and it would describe these phenomena with the help of the special model language. The article analyses models of forecasting and determines classification attributes of the modelling methods. These attributes would make it possible to select (in the course of each cycle of the forecast) the relevant methods, which would be adequate with both the task of forecasting, and with conditions for this task solving. Materials of this article contain the data, which are of practical value for the specialists, who are engaged in the management of production and in the economic processes, as well as for the persons, who make decisions.

Volume 11 | 08-Special Issue

Pages: 378-383